Francis Bacon If a man will begin with certainties, he shall end in doubts. First Major Proposal (The Strategic Presumption of Counterfactuals All strategies (and analyses of them) are grounded in a series of counterfactual claims synchronous generators phd thesis 2011 about alternate possibilities, their consequences, and the relationships between them. The public will not accept less. This is not a consideration for the remote science-fiction future. This misses the point. Daniel Dennett, in Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking Kathryn Schulz: On being wrong - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on if TED videos are blocked) "Most of us will do anything to avoid being wrong. Albert Einstein Nine-tenths of tactics are certain and taught in the books; but, the irrational tenth is like the kingfisher flashing across the pool. This annotated briefing documents a research effort aimed at understanding and predicting how militaries may improve their battlefield effectiveness.
In this interview for Think magazine (April 92 Richard Paul provides a quick overview of critical thinking and the issues surrounding it: defining it, common mistakes in assessing it, its relation to communication skills, self-esteem, collaborative learning, motivation, curiosity, job skills.
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The research synthesizes a broad literature on innovation and provides a useful tool for assessing future military developments. Ben Goldacre: Battling bad science, a talk from m (but you may need to watch it on if the m version won't run on your computer) "Every day there are news reports of new health advice, but how can you know if they're right? Paul: Collaborative learning is desirable only if grounded in disciplined critical thinking. We now accept as common knowledge that military operations defy rules, calling them instead human endeavors, characterized by the continuous, mutual adaptation of give and take, moves, and countermoves among all participants. Our interest in outliers was born out of Internet-based surveying that Clint Watts undertook on The purpose of that survey was to test the ability of crowds to make accurate hypotheses about future counterterrorism issues in the event of Usama Bin Ladens death. Shimon Peres See also crowd sourcing See also Decision Making See also Critical Thinking See also afso21 School of Advanced Air and Space Studies (saass), Air University School of Advanced Military Studies (sams),.S. Because of this, leaders must sort through this fog to find the truth, often a daunting endeavor thats permeated by chance. After all, intellectual curiosity is not a thing in itself valuable in itself and for itself. Adaptive Peircean Decision Aid Project Summary Assessments ( local copy ), by Senglaub, Sandia National Laboratories, Dec 2006 Abstract - This effort's objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis ( local copy ), by Heuer, 1999, for CIA - very good examination of many elements of critical thinking, with examples ( PDF version ) from the introduction Dick Heuer's writings make three admissions essay length fundamental points about the cognitive challenges intelligence analysts. Pepsi) and profound ones, and shares her groundbreaking research that has uncovered some surprising attitudes about our decisions." Barry Schwartz on the paradox of choice - a TED talk (you may need to watch it on if TED videos are blocked) "Psychologist Barry Schwartz.
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